Rwanda is bracing for an unusually wet Umuhindo season, with Meteo Rwanda forecasting cumulative rainfall of between 300 and 1,000 millimetres from September to December 2026.
The forecast, released on August 21, places the expected rainfall above the long-term average for the season and compares the anticipated pattern with rainfall recorded during the 1997 and 2023 seasons.
Meteo Rwanda Director General Aimable Gahigi attributed the expected increase to oceanic conditions in the Pacific and Indian oceans, which are expected to contribute to higher atmospheric moisture over the region.
Rainfall is expected to be relatively limited in September before increasing in the following months, with the heaviest rains forecast later in the season.
The highest cumulative rainfall, ranging between 800mm and 1,000mm, is expected in Nyamasheke District, western parts of Rutsiro and Karongi, western and southern parts of Nyamagabe and Nyaruguru, and eastern parts of Rusizi.
Parts of the Southern and Eastern provinces and Kigali are expected to receive comparatively lower totals of between 300mm and 450mm.
The forecast comes after an unusually dry period in much of Rwanda. Meteo Rwanda had earlier projected below-average rainfall during August, ahead of the September-to-December rainy season.
Authorities are now urging residents, farmers and local leaders to strengthen preparations for possible floods, landslides, soil erosion and other hazards associated with heavy rainfall.
An official responsible for disaster preparedness at the ministry in charge of emergency management said early action would help reduce losses to lives, property, infrastructure, crops and livestock.
“Although we cannot stop the rain from falling, we can reduce its impact by preparing properly and early,” the official said.
The Umuhindo season is particularly important for agriculture because farmers grow crops such as maize and rice that require adequate moisture.
Farmers are therefore encouraged to prepare their fields and strengthen erosion-control measures before the rains intensify.
The warning is significant given Rwanda’s recent experience with extreme rainfall. In 2023, severe rains triggered floods and landslides that caused extensive loss of life and damage to homes, infrastructure and farmland.
Meteo Rwanda’s latest seasonal outlook reinforces the need for early preparedness as the country moves from a prolonged dry spell into a potentially much wetter season.
